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Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2001 09:07:34 -0800 (PST)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Mon, Oct 29, 2001
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   D=
evelopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  =
Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version=
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ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Monday, Oct 29, 2001 at 11:=
47AM EST    Commentary last updated: Monday, Oct 29, 2001 at 09:58AM EST  M=
eteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy /  True Quote     Congratulatio=
ns Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUIL=
A/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: =
AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Tem=
perature'     Today: Monday, October 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta T=
emp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE] =
 (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 56 +1 ERCOT(SP) 75 -1 FR=
CC(SE) 74 -1 MAAC(NE) 56 -1 MAIN(CTR) 56 +1 MAPP(HP) 50 NC NPCC(NE) 51 -1 S=
ERC(SE) 65 -1 SPP(SP) 71 NC WSCC(NW) 56 +1 WSCC(RK) 63 NC WSCC(SW) 71 +3   =
  Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Me=
an 51 52 50 52 60 62 70 67 Max 59 58 55 56 67 67 76 72 Min 44 47 45 48 52 5=
4 62 63 Range 15 11 10 8 15 13 14 9 StD-P 3.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 4.1 4.0 4.4 3.0 C=
ount 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Pacific air to overwh=
elm most of the country this week with a lack of significant storminess. Th=
ere may however be some late season percolation in the tropics.  For the th=
ird time this month, we set a handful of record lows in the SE U.S. this we=
ekend. The Canadian high is moving toward the coast though and we should so=
on initiate a broad (though light) SW flow of air that will warm the East b=
ack to above normal levels. This is already well under way in the Plains wh=
ere 70's were common this weekend. This pattern shuts off the Gulf of Mexic=
o and allows for mainly dry frontal passages. One such front in the Plains =
will shift to the NE through Wednesday. Since we have a zonal flow developi=
ng in the upper levels, this front does little more than slow down the warm=
 up as opposed to stopping it all together. ! Storms are a little more robu=
st in the Pacific NW as a deep trough in the Gulf of Alaska continues to se=
nd impulses of energy your way. Some precip should get as far South as Nort=
hern California. With no additional arctic air in sight this week, most fiv=
e day averages return to above seasonal norms.  The most excitement for wea=
ther fanatics this week may be late season development in the tropics. We h=
ave a tropical depression in the Central Atlantic now and satellite picture=
s suggest another one may be developing over the next 24 hours in the Carib=
bean off the coast of Nicaragua. My initial thought was its a little too fa=
r South and too close to land to really have an impact in the Gulf and SE. =
However, there is considerable forecast scatter among the models. It runs a=
nywhere from nothing at all to development in the Gulf of Mexico. So, I won=
t rule it out yet, but since it would be days away and not even developed y=
et, I'll wait a couple of days before issuing a p! rediction. Tomorrow: Tue=
sday, October 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matri=
x    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enl=
arge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 -3 ERCOT(SP) 76 -1 FRCC(SE) 78 NC MAAC(NE) 5=
7 -1 MAIN(CTR) 56 -3 MAPP(HP) 52 -3 NPCC(NE) 50 NC SERC(SE) 69 NC SPP(SP) 7=
2 -1 WSCC(NW) 56 +1 WSCC(RK) 64 +6 WSCC(SW) 67 +2     Range Standard Deviat=
ion [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 59 48 51 59 65 70=
 63 Max 57 63 52 56 66 72 77 70 Min 46 54 43 48 53 58 60 59 Range 11 9 9 8 =
13 14 17 11 StD-P 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.7 4.4 4.6 3.2 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 1=
0 10   Day 3: Wednesday, October 31, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.=
   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Cl=
ick on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 62 -1 ERCOT(SP) 79 NC FRCC(S=
E) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 54 -5 MAIN(CTR) 64 +2 MAPP(HP) 62 +2 NPCC(NE) 47 -2 SERC(=
SE) 70 -1 SPP(SP) 73 +2 WSCC(NW) 53 NC WSCC(RK) 58 +2 WSCC(SW) 67 +1     Ra=
nge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 5=
7 61 46 47 50 67 73 62 Max 63 67 50 54 59 73 78 67 Min 53 56 42 43 45 63 66=
 59 Range 10 11 8 11 14 10 12 8 StD-P 2.9 3.1 2.2 3.1 4.3 3.6 3.5 2.5 Count=
 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8   Day 4: Thursday, November  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice: =
 Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE]=
[IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 67 +3 ERCOT(SP) =
81 NC FRCC(SE) 82 NC MAAC(NE) 66 NC MAIN(CTR) 64 +1 MAPP(HP) 61 +4 NPCC(NE)=
 56 -4 SERC(SE) 75 -1 SPP(SP) 73 +1 WSCC(NW) 52 NC WSCC(RK) 53 NC WSCC(SW) =
67 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE =
SP SW Mean 59 53 57 47 44 71 74 63 Max 64 61 60 52 55 76 79 68 Min 55 48 54=
 43 37 68 68 59 Range 9 13 6 9 18 8 11 9 StD-P 2.6 3.6 1.8 2.8 5.0 2.6 4.0 =
2.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Friday, November  2, 2001   Syncrasy's C=
hoice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  =
[IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 64 +2 ERC=
OT(SP) 81 +1 FRCC(SE) 82 NC MAAC(NE) 67 NC MAIN(CTR) 61 +4 MAPP(HP) 56 +4 N=
PCC(NE) 62 +2 SERC(SE) 75 NC SPP(SP) 71 NC WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 53 NC WS=
CC(SW) 68 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW=
 RK SE SP SW Mean 56 50 62 48 45 72 73 65 Max 60 58 64 54 54 76 79 69 Min 5=
1 41 59 45 37 69 67 61 Range 9 17 5 9 17 7 12 8 StD-P 3.1 5.4 1.6 2.5 6.2 2=
.2 4.2 2.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  Last week 6-10 da=
y forecasts from the models were largely in agreement and so far have been =
mostly on the money. Given the pattern though, I would have expected this t=
o be the case. The next change in weather will likely not be so agreed upon=
 and there is already some scatter in the models. My early expectations are=
 for another buckle to take place in the jet stream over the Eastern U.S. e=
arly in this period. Some keep things zonal, but you certainly can't argue =
the trend so far this fall is for this to occur about every seven days. But=
, there is reason to think the Eastern trough will not be as robust as the =
last several. In other words, it won't be as cold or spread as far South or=
 West. If it goes this way, we would turn slightly below normal East, a lit=
tle above in the West and a little of both(or normal) in the P! lains. Day =
6: Saturday, November  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatili=
ty Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on imag=
e to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 60 +4 ERCOT(SP) 79 +2 FRCC(SE) 83 +1 MA=
AC(NE) 64 +3 MAIN(CTR) 59 +5 MAPP(HP) 53 +2 NPCC(NE) 56 +1 SERC(SE) 74 +2 S=
PP(SP) 69 +3 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 -1 WSCC(SW) 70 NC     Range Standar=
d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 51 58 52 =
47 71 70 67 Max 57 57 61 56 55 76 76 72 Min 45 45 56 48 40 69 67 63 Range 1=
2 12 5 8 15 7 9 9 StD-P 3.9 4.7 1.5 3.3 5.6 2.2 2.9 3.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5=
 5   Day 7: Sunday, November  4, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   V=
olatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click =
on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 -2 ERCOT(SP) 74 -2 FRCC(SE) 8=
1 -1 MAAC(NE) 56 -3 MAIN(CTR) 51 -3 MAPP(HP) 50 -2 NPCC(NE) 52 NC SERC(SE) =
70 -1 SPP(SP) 64 -2 WSCC(NW) 54 -2 WSCC(RK) 54 -1 WSCC(SW) 70 -1     Range =
Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 48 52=
 48 51 47 67 66 67 Max 54 60 53 54 56 71 71 71 Min 41 44 43 49 38 64 63 63 =
Range 13 16 10 5 18 7 8 8 StD-P 5.6 6.2 4.0 1.7 7.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 Count 5 5 5=
 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Monday, November  5, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta T=
emp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE] =
 (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 -7 ERCOT(SP) 62 -1 FR=
CC(SE) 67 -3 MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 39 -5 MAPP(HP) 45 -7 NPCC(NE) 42 +3 S=
ERC(SE) 53 -5 SPP(SP) 56 +2 WSCC(NW) 44 -4 WSCC(RK) 47 -5 WSCC(SW) 63 -3   =
  Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Me=
an 48 52 48 47 51 63 66 67 Max 57 57 53 53 56 69 72 71 Min 40 48 43 44 49 5=
6 61 63 Range 17 9 10 9 7 13 11 8 StD-P 6.8 3.1 4.5 2.4 2.5 6.1 4.4 2.7 Cou=
nt 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Tuesday, November  6, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:=
  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE=
][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 -2 ERCOT(SP)=
 68 +2 FRCC(SE) 63 -3 MAAC(NE) 44 -1 MAIN(CTR) 50 -4 MAPP(HP) 45 -7 NPCC(NE=
) 40 NC SERC(SE) 54 +1 SPP(SP) 60 -3 WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 40 -6 WSCC(SW)=
 63 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE=
 SP SW Mean 49 47 46 45 47 62 66 65 Max 52 50 55 50 52 69 67 68 Min 47 45 4=
1 42 44 56 66 63 Range 5 5 14 8 8 13 1 5 StD-P 1.5 1.9 5.9 3.3 3.0 6.0 0.3 =
1.7 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Wednesday, November  7, 2001   Syncrasy=
's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAG=
E]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 -7=
 ERCOT(SP) 61 -7 FRCC(SE) 66 -3 MAAC(NE) 50 -3 MAIN(CTR) 41 -14 MAPP(HP) 36=
 -11 NPCC(NE) 45 -3 SERC(SE) 60 +1 SPP(SP) 47 -19 WSCC(NW) 42 +3 WSCC(RK) 4=
1 +3 WSCC(SW) 61 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT H=
P NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 41 43 43 42 60 58 56 Max 40 44 46 45 43 61 58 6=
1 Min 40 39 38 42 40 57 56 47 Range 0 5 8 3 3 4 2 14 StD-P 0.0 1.9 3.6 1.2 =
1.4 1.9 0.9 6.0 Count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3    Trader Summary is designed around =
and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?  =
 Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbene=
rgy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09
